Predicting the Next Big Thing: How Wattpad Spotted BTS Before Anyone Else

In the world of B2C startups, data is often viewed through the lens of user engagement, retention metrics, and conversion rates. But what if your app's data could predict the next cultural phenomenon before it breaks into the mainstream?

This isn't science fiction—it's exactly what happened at Wattpad, the storytelling platform that identified BTS as the next big thing back in 2016, years before the Korean boy band became a global sensation.

On the latest episode of the Levels Podcast, we sat down with Tim Johnson, former Head of Brand Partnerships at Wattpad and current Head of Brand Partnerships at Blossom Social. Tim shared fascinating insights into how consumer apps can become crystal balls for cultural trends, and more importantly, how startups can monetize these predictive capabilities.

The Power of Fan Fiction as Cultural Indicator

Wattpad's ability to spot BTS early wasn't luck—it was data science in action. As Tim explained during our conversation:

"We knew in advance that BTS would be absolutely massive boy-bound. We knew it in 2016. I went and presented that to media agencies and marketing agencies and said, hey guys, there's this Korean band that's about to break the internet."

The secret weapon? Fan fiction. Wattpad's platform, which Tim describes as "like YouTube, but for books and stories," became an unexpected forecasting tool for entertainment trends. The platform's data showed an exponential rise in BTS fan fiction, signaling massive fan engagement before the band hit mainstream Western audiences.

"We were predicting that back in 2015, 2016. So yeah, that's kind of the way to leverage some of the insights... we could see the fan fiction start to rise exponentially. And with that, that meant it was an early signal that this band, this group was coming in."

From Data to Dollars: Monetizing Predictive Insights

Identifying trends is one thing; turning that knowledge into revenue is another. Tim revealed how Wattpad monetized their cultural forecasting abilities by packaging insights with other services for entertainment companies.

The value proposition was compelling: entertainment companies invest massive upfront costs in movies, TV shows, and other content, hoping for returns years down the line. Having early indicators of what will be popular provides a significant competitive advantage.

"For a movie company, you want to understand like what trends are happening and why are they happening. So that was very, very interesting to the entertainment industry to be able to predict things that are going to be big next year."

Tim noted that books serve as particularly strong early predictors for other entertainment formats. The BTS prediction proved prescient not just for the band itself, but for the broader wave of Korean cultural content that followed, including hits like Squid Game.

"That meant K-pop was gonna be getting big. That meant perhaps other things around like Korea or interest around Korea was gonna get big. You start to see a lot more Korean based books. And I mean, that was been absolutely true."

The ASSET Framework for Network Effects

Wattpad's predictive capabilities stem from their network effects, which Tim breaks down using the ASSET framework developed by Wattpad's founders:

• Atomic unit: The core value driver (books on Wattpad, portfolios on Blossom)
• Seed supply: Bringing on creators and content
• Scale demand: Advertising to bring in users
• Enlarge network effects: Users become contributors
• Track proprietary insights: Data becomes valuable

The "T" in this framework—tracking proprietary insights—is where the magic happens for trend prediction. As Tim explains:

"This is the idea of now your data that you're building, your data set becomes valuable... These proprietary insights become very valuable as well."

Lessons for B2C Startups

For startup founders, Wattpad's story offers several key takeaways:

1. Your User Data is More Valuable Than You Think Consumer behavior patterns on your platform might reveal trends beyond your immediate industry. Whether it's reading preferences, investment choices, or relationship patterns, user behavior can signal broader cultural shifts.

2. Package Insights with Core Services Rather than selling raw data, Tim suggests packaging insights with other valuable services. Wattpad bundled trend predictions with IP partnerships and first-look deals for entertainment companies.

3. Focus on Leading Indicators Books proved to be leading indicators for broader entertainment trends. Consider what leading indicators might exist within your user base and industry.

4. Think Beyond Direct Monetization While Wattpad's primary revenue came from brand partnerships, their trend prediction capabilities added significant value to these relationships and opened new revenue streams.

Building Your Own Crystal Ball

Tim's experience at both Wattpad and now Blossom Social demonstrates that any consumer platform with engaged users can potentially develop predictive capabilities. At Blossom, they're applying similar principles to investment trends:

"With Blossom, we can see what investors are investing in in real time, which is even more valuable because we can see where the market is going immediately. We can also see sentiment across different verticals of investing."

The key is recognizing that your users aren't just customers—they're early adopters whose collective behavior might predict broader market movements.

Key Takeaways

• Consumer app data can serve as powerful early indicators for cultural and market trends
• Fan fiction and user-generated content often signal mainstream trends before they break
• Predictive insights become valuable when packaged with other services for B2B clients
• The ASSET framework helps identify where proprietary insights fit into your network effects
• Entertainment companies and other industries value early trend identification for strategic planning
• Books and storytelling platforms can be particularly strong predictors for broader entertainment trends

Want to hear more insights from successful B2C founders? Listen to the full conversation with Tim Johnson on the Levels Podcast, where we dive deep into brand partnerships, network effects, and building consumer apps that scale.